BNP Paribas in Hong Kong SAR News & Press
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September 18, 2013 -

BNP Paribas launches EM STEER™ – a fair value FX model for emerging markets

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BNP Paribas has extended its unique STEER™ model, the bank’s short-term estimate of exchange rate fair value, to cover a range of emerging markets, with the launch of EM STEER™.

BNP Paribas EM STEER™ will help investors detect mispricings in 21 EM currency pairs in Asia, Latin America and CEEMEA from their short-term fundamentals. It follows the successful rollout of BNP Paribas’s STEER™ model in 2012 and provides a unique framework for identifying when a currency is mispriced relative to interest rate, equity and commodity markets. Typically, a currency’s misalignment from its STEER™ is short lived and is an important input when forecasting and trading currencies.

Steven Saywell, Global Head of FX Strategy at BNP Paribas said: “BNP Paribas STEER™ is designed to be useful for all investor types by helping to identify when a currency is mispriced relative to other financial markets.  BNP Paribas’ extensive backtesting of the model indicates that it should be a useful quantitative tool for our clients.”

In line with the original STEER™ model, BNP Paribas EM STEER™ will bolster the reach of FX Strategy at BNP Paribas for three principal reasons:

  • It uses financial market data rather than economic data to determine fair value.
  • It provides a short-term under/over valuation signal. It typically takes 1-2 weeks for a currency to move back in line with its STEER™.
  • It is aimed at non-quant as well as quant investors, with updates published in a weekly standalone publication, FX Quant Insight, and integrated into BNP Paribas’ overall FX strategy view.

The principal authors are Michael Sneyd, FX Strategist & Lead Quant Strategist, and James Hellawell, Quantitative Strategist, who have developed the new model in coordination with BNP Paribas’ Local Market Strategy Teams.

“BNP Paribas STEER™ pioneered an approach to establishing short-term fair values of G10 exchange rates based on relationships with interest rates, equities and commodities. Our emerging market model follows this approach,” adds Steven Saywell.

EM STEERTM will cover 21 currency pairs, including:

ASIA LAT AM CEEMEA
USDKRW USDBRL EURPLN
USDMY USDCLP EURCZK
USDIDR USDMXN EURHUF
USDINR USDPEN EURRON
USDTHB USDCOP USDZAR
USDSGD USDTRY
USDPHP USDILS
USDTWD USDRU

STEER™ stands for Short-Term Equilibrium Exchange Rate and is a trade mark of BNP Paribas

Press Contacts
Paul Griffin, BNP Paribas UK Brand & Communications. +44 207 595 3299;  paul.griffin@uk.bnpparibas.com
Celeste Brown, BNP Paribas UK Brand & Communications. +44 207 595 4653; celeste.brown@uk.bnpparibas.com